The Miami-Dade Economy (MDE) continues to expand at a solid pace in the second half of the year, with an acceleration in payroll employment evident compared to 2017. This is due to a pick-up in economic activity among the MDE top trade partners. Most importantly, in creating stronger employment growth is the solid expansion of the National economy. MDE is highly sensitive to both National and International economic conditions. The Table below presents key economic indicators of the MDE with an estimate for 2018 based on mid-year data.
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Miami-Dade County Key Economic Indicators |
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Indicators |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018E |
|
Payroll Employment (D %) |
3.4 |
3.0 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.9 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
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Total Taxable Sales (D %) |
7.8 |
3.5 |
2.0 |
7.0 |
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MIA Passenger Arrivals (D %) |
8.8 |
0.2 |
-1.0 |
2.0 |
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% of Int’l Passengers out of Total Passengers |
48 |
49 |
45 |
51 |
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Overnight Visitors (D %) |
6.4 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
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International Trade (D %) |
-7.8 |
-2.2 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
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Existing-Home Sales (D %) |
2.9 |
-5.3 |
-2.8 |
10.0 |
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Sources: Florida EDR, Florida DEO, MIA Traffic Report, U.S. Census Bureau, International Trade Statistics, Florida Realtors Association and 2018 Estimates (E) by The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) |
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The above indicators show significant increases in Taxable Sales relative to 2017. This is an important sign of growing spending in the economy, including existing single-family home sales. The unemployment rate is slightly higher than the nation, but this is a characteristic of the MDE due to rising inflows of workers from throughout Latin America.
Payroll employment is particularly strong in three industries, as presented in the graphic that follows. Manufacturing employment is expanding strongly this year, most of it is accounted by construction-related products. Construction employment has been solid through mid-2018. However, growth is expected to slow down toward the end of the year and into 2019 as a result of increasing inventories of multifamily housing in various region of the MDE. Finally, solid employment expansion in Transportation/Warehousing as a direct result of increases in economic activity, is also highlighted in the graphic on the following page.
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Source: Florida DEO, August Employment Report. |
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By: Dr. J. Antonio Villamil, Founder and Senior Advisor The Washington Economics Group, Inc. (WEG) |
