Early Vote Returns Have Exceeded Total 2014 Numbers


The latest data from the Florida Chamber’s Early Voting Dashboard shows that as of this morning, 3,424,919 voters have cast their ballots, with 1,943,151 vote-by-mail (VBM) ballots returned and 1,481,768 early ballots cast. Total turnout currently stands at 25.92 percent.

Total votes cast so far in the 2018 in-person early voting (EV) window have now exceeded the final totals from 2014. This has happened in both VBM totals and in EV totals.
Republicans maintain a two percent ballot cast advantage mainly thanks to strong EV performance. The Democrat lead in EV is under 3,000 ballots as of this morning. In fact, Republican turnout out among 0 and 1 score voters (those who have voted once or never in the last four general elections) exceeds that of Democrat 0s and 1s. Conversely, Republican turnout among 3 and 4 score voters (those who have voted in three or all of the last four general elections) is under that of Democrat 3s and 4s.

This means that Republicans have banked a higher share of their new and low propensity voters while still having more super voters remaining to cast votes. Finally, turnout among non-party affiliate (NPA) men is slightly higher than among NPA women which could also be a good sign for Republicans.

However, when you are talking about a race that could be won by less than 100,000 votes then Democrats only need small marginal advantages over Republicans. For example, every one percent statewide turnout increase among Democratic black voters yields 24,000 new votes. It's possible turnout among black Democrats could be 10 points higher than in a typical gubernatorial election yielding 240,000 new votes.

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